ABSTRACT
Objective To provide reference for formulating scarlet fever prevention and control strategies by analyzing the epidemiological characteristics and predicting the incidence trend of scarlet fever. Methods Spearman correlation analysis, clustering analysis, seasonal index model and seasonal ARIMA model were used for analysis and prediction. Results The average annual incidence of scarlet fever in 2010-2018 was 1.37/100 000, and there was a positive correlation between annual incidence and year (rs=0.817,P=0.007). April-June and November-December were high incidence months. The clustering analysis was significant(F=4795.30，P<0.001), showing that the high-incidence areas are Shennongjia, Yichang, Enshi, Wuhan. Reported cases were concentrated in 1-14 years old, mainly for students, child care children and scattered children. The incidence rate of males was higher than that of females. The optimal model is ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,0)12. The prediction showed that the monthly incidence characteristics of 2019 were consistent with previous years, and the annual incidence rate was 10.22/100 000(95% CI:2.33/100 000-30.43/100 000), which was higher than the incidence of 2018. Conclusions The incidence of scarlet fever in Hubei Province is generally on the rise from 2010 to 2018. The incidence is bimodal. Students are the main disease group. The incidence rate of males is higher. The incidence is mainly concentrated in the mountainous areas of southwest and capital cities. The ARIMA model has a good applicability in the prediction of scarlet fever. The incidence level will continue to rise in 2019, and it is necessary to strengthen monitoring and control measures with reference to epidemiological characteristics.
ABSTRACT
The synthetic biology matures to promote the heterologous biosynthesis of the well-known drug paclitaxel that is one of the most important and active chemotherapeutic agents for the first-line clinical treatment of cancer. This review focuses on the construction and regulation of the biosynthetic pathway of paclitaxel intermediates in both Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae. In particular, the review also features the early efforts to design and overproduce taxadiene and the bottleneck of scale fermentation for producing the intermediates.
Subject(s)
Alkenes , Chemistry , Metabolism , Antineoplastic Agents, Phytogenic , Chemistry , Metabolism , Biosynthetic Pathways , Diterpenes , Chemistry , Metabolism , Escherichia coli , Metabolism , Fermentation , Metabolic Engineering , Paclitaxel , Chemistry , Metabolism , Prodrugs , Saccharomyces cerevisiae , Metabolism , Synthetic BiologyABSTRACT
To discuss the application of complex networks models in preventing and controlling communicable disease, analyze and control the spread of infectious diseases by using the models and the software of complex networks based on its basic properties. Compared with conventional epidemiological approach, the complex networks theory, as a new theory, not only can describe the dynamic process of infections diseases spreading but also forecast the situation of infectious disease. The influence of the network's topology on the infections diseases transmission can be deeply understood through the research on disease spreading by its theory, so to control the spread of diseases. Complex networks theory approach can be used in epidemiological research for having much advantage compared with those conventional epidemiological approaches.